→ 2019 Tech Trends Report — The Future Today Institute
Nov 29, 2019
futures & highlights & change & tech
This report is intentionally broad and robust. We have included a list of adjacent uncertainties, a detailed analysis of 315 tech trends, a collection of weak signals for 2020, and more than four dozen scenarios describing plausible near futures.
Impressive work. I particularly like the CIPHER heuristic they use in analysis signals: contradictions, infections, practices, hacks, extremes, rarities.
→ Paul Saffo’s approach to forecasting.
Jul 26, 2015
futures & highlights
[M]y mantra for this process is "strong opinions, weakly held." Allow your intuition to guide you to a conclusion, no matter how imperfect — this is the "strong opinion" part. Then –and this is the "weakly held" part– prove yourself wrong. Engage in creative doubt. Look for information that doesn't fit, or indicators that pointing in an entirely different direction. Eventually your intuition will kick in and a new hypothesis will emerge out of the rubble, ready to be ruthlessly torn apart once again. — Paul Saffo’s approach to forecasting.
Also, reading about Paul Saffo brought me to the Long Now Foundation — so neat!
→ What worries me about the future of Silicon Valley, is that one-dimensionality, that it’s not a Renaissance culture, it’s an engineering culture
Jul 19, 2015
tech & futures & highlights
What worries me about the future of Silicon Valley, is that one-dimensionality, that it’s not a Renaissance culture, it’s an engineering culture. It’s an engineering culture that believes that it’s revolutionary, but it’s actually not that revolutionary. The Valley has, for a long time, mined a couple of big ideas. — John Markoff, The Next Wave.
→ The question is, how does this current bubble end? Not when, but how? What constitutes a bubble? For me, I can clearly see we’re in a bubble economy when relatively more money is chasing relatively few good ideas
Jul 19, 2015
tech & futures & highlights
The question is, how does this current bubble end? Not when, but how? What constitutes a bubble? For me, I can clearly see we’re in a bubble economy when relatively more money is chasing relatively few good ideas. When the conversation turns to Uber for “x,” you can tell there we’re out of ideas, that people are basically just trying to iterate and get lucky. — John Markoff, The Next Wave.
Ryan J. A. Murphy
ryan@fulcra.design
ryanjamurphy
Canada
Memorial University of Newfoundland
fulcra.design
Helping changemakers change their worlds through systemic design and with innovation, leadership, and changemaking education.
neurosciencestuff: New research involving a psychologist from the University of York has revealed for the first time that both belief in God and ▵
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