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Fulcra

 By RYAN J. A. MURPHY
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The statement “I had a premonition that the marriage would not last, but I was wrong” sounds odd, as does any sentence about an intuition that turned out to be false.
— From Daniel Kahneman’s 2011 “Thinking, Fast and Slow”. The book is great, filled with insights like this one. Ironically, it is intuitively true that no one ever says “my intuition was wrong.”
    Next → In the slim volume that he later called “my disturbing little book,” Meehl reviewed the results of 20 studies that had analyzed whether clinical predictions based on the subjective impressions of trained professionals were more accurate than statistical predictions made by combining a few scores or ratings according to a rule. In the slim volume that he later called “my disturbing little book,” Meehl reviewed the results of 20 studies that had analyzed whether clinical ← Previous On Ice Buckets! I participated in the ALS Ice Bucket Challenge because it really seemed like Alison wanted to pour a bunch of ice water on my head (turns out that
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